The article has been updated to clarify that the 4.6-year return on carbon investment is for the ST2 project.

This is part 8 of the My Neighborhood News Network series on light rail arriving in Snohomish County. You can read part 1 here, part 2 here, part 3 here, part 4 here, part 5 here and part 6 here and part 7 here.

Sound Transit’s Link light rail from the Northgate Station to the Lynnwood Transit Center is complete, but the journey continues to Everett.

The opening of the Link light rail in Lynnwood on Aug. 30 marks the end of the ST2 project for those in southwest Snohomish County. Commuters will enjoy having scheduled stops that won’t be interrupted by congestion as they head toward Seattle or SeaTac.

In the immediate future, bus riders will see many changes to bus routes. Routes in Edmonds, Lynnwood and Mountlake Terrace have been eliminated and replaced with routes that adjust for the light rail. Although all the stops are still served, some have altered end stops.

One of the welcomed changes is the introduction of flat fees for bus and light rail service in September. Community Transit will shift its price to a $2.50 flat rate for regular fares, and the Link light rail will change to a $3 flat fee, regardless of the distance traveled. Riders under 18 are free.

However, light rail’s extension into Snohomish County is far from complete, as the segment between Lynnwood and Everett has just entered the planning stages.

Sound Transit 3

The Everett Peninsula is not only the end of the light rail’s northern reach but also the end of Sound Transit’s district map. This would make the light rail a vital connector for people living in Marysville, Stanwood and Lake Stevens.

Sound Transit 3, commonly called ST3, is scheduled for completion in 2041. It will add seven stops north of Lynnwood. 

The proposed stations include:

– West Alderwood

– Ash Way

– Mariner

– SR 99 and Airport Road

– Southwest Everett Industrial Center

– SR 526 and Evergreen

– Everett Station

 “At 16.3 miles, the Everett Link extension will be the longest expansion project that Sound Transit has undertaken,” said Sound Transit Media Relations Manager John Gallagher. “Building that far will be a major construction project.” 

The distance from the Lynnwood Transit Center to Everett Station is nearly twice the 8.5 miles between Northgate and Lynnwood.

“Current cost estimates for the Everett Link extension range from $5.05 billion to $6.9 billion,” Gallagher said. “We will have a better sense of the cost once we move into design.” 

Accountability questions

Throughout its funding history, light rail has been plagued with funding challenges and goals that were realistically beyond its budget. These issues were only compounded by inflation, economic recessions, funding challenges, housing bubbles, market downturns and a pandemic.

Smarter Transit, a pro-transit nonprofit organization, has been asking for more transparency and accountability from Sound Transit. The groups is callling for a pause in all ST3 projects while a cost-benefit analysis of viable ST3 alternatives can be conducted. Further, it wants all Sound Transit board members to be directly elected by voters based on district.

With ST3 being almost twice the distance from Northgate to Lynnwood, there is potentially twice the eminent domain acquisition and at least twice the construction, two of the prime cost inflators.

In an Aug. 7 Seattle Times opinion article for Smarter Transit, Lonergan, who serves as Pierce County assessor, and Teitzel, a former Edmonds city councilmember, wrote that Sound Transit does not deliver projects on time or within budget. Voters approved $54 billion in 2016 to finish the system, but now Sound Transit says it will cost over $148 billion, including cost overruns from ST1 and ST2.

Lonergan and Teitzel wrote in their op-ed that “roads, ferries, bridges, bike lanes and sidewalks face billion-dollar shortfalls for maintenance, preservation and construction. That could mean even more regressive taxes are coming.”

“We’re acutely aware of these pressures and how they affect our projects,” Gallagher responded. “Earlier this year, we hired Terri Mestas as a deputy CEO for capital delivery; she had previously overseen capital projects at [Los Angeles International Airport].” 

Gallagher said that Mestas is looking at how Sound Transit is structured to deliver on projects to see how effectively and cost-efficiently those projects can be completed. 

 “The [Sound Transit] Board is also keenly aware of these issues and is monitoring them closely so that projects remain affordable,” Gallagher said. 

If the projects run over their budget, there is a chance that a vote will be put to taxpayers for more funding to complete the project, and those taxpayers could vote “no.” 

In that event, Gallagher said the Sound Transit Board would need to weigh the options, potentially have an economic realignment, and seek federal grants.

Environmental impacts

According to Smarter Transit, in 2050, 3% of all daily trips by car, bus, rail, ferry, bike and on foot are forecast to be on light rail. Further, most passengers will be existing bus riders who must transfer to the light rail. With light rail in place, hours of traffic delay are forecast to increase by 35%.

“Our region will see only a 6% reduction in greenhouse gases from light rail while the regional goal is 80%. Huge greenhouse gas emissions from ST3 construction aren’t being counted,” Lonergan and Teitzel wrote.

That’s not to mention another vital issue Smarter Transit raises is the light rail’s environmental cost: The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) the project releases compared to what it will prevent.

Fimia questions if the pollution spent on the project helps or hinders CO2 emissions, as more drivers in Snohomish County are starting to purchase electric vehicles. 

In a 2018 Chatham House Report, updated in 2020, cement is said to account for 8% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Further, according to the State of New York, concrete has an almost one-for-one carbon exchange rate, with a pound of concrete creating 0.91 pounds of CO2. 

The Biden administration raised the social cost of carbon (SCC) — the estimated financial cost of economic and ecological damage from emitting one ton of carbon dioxide — to $51 per metric ton in 2022, from the Trump administration’s $10 per metric ton.

With 2204.62 pounds in a metric ton, that equals $0.023 per pound, giving concrete an SCC of $0.021. 

However, a November 2023 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report shows the social cost is $190 per metric ton — 3.73 times President Biden’s SCC. With the EPA’s numbers, the social cost of carbon is $0.086 a pound, giving concrete an SCC of $0.078 per pound.

Sound Transit’s Gallagher said the ST2 project from Northgate to Lynnwood created 64,000 tons of carbon. That means the light rail, by the EPA’s estimation, has an SCC of $12.16 million.

Concrete weighs 150 pounds per cubic foot, there are 5,280 feet in a mile, and it is 16.3 miles of track from Lynnwood to Everett.

The return on the region’s carbon investment will depend on how quickly and large the area grows and how many people use the light rail. The Link extension will prevent an estimated 14,000 tons of CO2 from being released by vehicles a year, an SCC value of $2.66 million.

ST2 will take about 4.6 years to pay back its carbon investment, and it will be 9.2 years for ST3. Meanwhile, Snohomish County’s population will continue to grow, making the fight for carbon neutrality more difficult.

The last 16.3 miles to Everett might be harder fought than previously imagined.

— By Rick Sinnett